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La Nina continues in the tropical Pacific. Australian and international climate modest suggest it is likely to continue at least into February 2021.

Sea level in August was higher than normal for most of countries in the region with positive anomalies situated around western Palau, North western FSM and Solomon Islands. Coral bleaching is on Alert level 1 in northern PNG and parts of FSM.

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral.

Sea level in July was higher than normal fro most of countries in the region with positive anomalies situated around western Palau and Solomon Islands. Parts of PNG, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Tonga, Cook Islands and French Polynesia experienced below normal sea level.

The Tropical Pacific Ocean remains neutral with respect to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with negative Indian Ocean Dipole phase possible in mid-2020. International climate models forecast ENSO-neutral until July 2020.

Sea level in September was higher than normal for most countries in the region, with positive anomalies (15-25 cm) situated around Palau, FSM, RMI and far north of eastern Kiribati, while smaller patches of +15 to +20cm anomalies occurred around the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga and Niue. Sea level in the central to the eastern equatorial Pacific was lower in September than August, although anomalies remained positive

In the tropical Pacific ocean, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. The positive Indian ocean dipole (IOD) events continues.

COSPPac Monthly Climate Bulletin, August 2019.

Recent observations and climate model outlooks suggest the immediate risk of El Nina has passed. However, there remains an increased likelihood that El Niño will develop later in 2019.

The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT, indicating there is approximately a 70% chance of El Niño occurring in 2018, around triple the normal likelihood.