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Growinginterestintraditionalknowledge(TK),particularlyinrelationtothepredictionofweatherorclimate extremes, raises issues concerning the appropriate storage and management of the information collected. The Traditional Knowledge Database (TK Database) for the storage and use of TK associated with weather and climate prediction in the Paci c was designed with the following principles in mind: (1) preservation of the knowledge, maintaining cultural context wherever possible; (2) respect for intellectual property and cultural sensitivities around data sharing and use; (3) appropriate system design, accounting for ongoing costs of system maintenance and often intermittent Internet access; and (4) moving beyond data preservation to ensure continued use and growth of the TK. The TK Database was successfully deployed to four countries in the south Paci c and is regularly used by their national meteorological services, and partner organizations, both to preserve TK related to weather and climate and as a tool to assist in monitoring the TK indicators. As the rst database of its kind, the TK Database lls a critical gap in the appropriate storage and application of TK and provides an important foundation for future developments.

In most countries, national meteorological services either generate or have access to seasonal climate forecasts.However,inanumberofregions,theuptakeoftheseforecastsbylocalcommunitiescanbelimited, with the locals instead relying on traditional knowledgeto make their climate forecasts.Both approachesto seasonal climate forecasting have bene ts, and the incorporation of traditional forecast methods into contemporaryforecastsystemscanleadtoforecaststhatarelocallyrelevantandbettertrustedbytheusers.This in turn could signi cantly improve the communication and application of climate information, especially to remote communities. A number of different methodologies have been proposed for combining these forecasts. Through considering the bene ts and limitations of each approach, practical recommendations are providedonselectingamethod,intheformofadecisionframework,thattakesintoconsiderationbothuser and provider needs. The framework comprises four main decision points: 1) consideration of the level of involvement of traditional-knowledge experts or the community that is required, 2) existing levels of traditional knowledge of climate forecasting and its level of cultural sensitivity, 3) the availability of long-term data—both traditional-knowledge and contemporary-forecast components, and 4) the level of resourcing available.Noonemethodissuitableforeveryoneandeverysituation;however,thedecisionframeworkhelps to select the most appropriate method for a given situation.

Invasive alien species (IAS) threaten human livelihoods and biodiversity globally. Increasing globalization facilitates IAS arrival, and environmental changes, including climate change, facilitate IAS establishment. Here we provide the first global, spatial analysis of the terrestrial threat from IAS in light of twenty-first century globalization and environmental change, and evaluate national capacities to prevent and manage species invasions. We find that one-sixth of the global land surface is highly vulnerable to invasion, including substantial areas in developing economies and biodiversity hotspots. The dominant invasion vectors differ between high-income countries (imports, particularly of plants and pets) and low-income countries (air travel). Uniting data on the causes of introduction and establishment can improve early-warning and eradication schemes. Most countries have limited capacity to act against invasions. In particular, we reveal a clear need for proactive invasion strategies in areas with high poverty levels, high biodiversity and low historical levels of invasion.

Surface ozone profiles were studied at Fiji (18.1oS, 178.2oE), Samoa (14.3oS, 170.6oW), Tahiti (18.0oS, 149.0oW), and San Cristobal, Galapagos (0.9oS, 89.6oW) from 1997-2003. Surface ozone levels at these Pacific sites showed a wintertime maximum and a summertime minimum with the lowest mixing ratios occurring at Tahiti and Galapagos, while the highest mixing ratios occurred at Fiji. The seasonal trends at each site were found to be dependent on the varying photochemical sink strength and the changing transport regimes in each season. It was established that the reduced photochemical sink strength in winter was one of the major reasons for the observed increase in surface ozone levels at each site in that season. The presence of the South Pacific Convergence Zone particularly for the Western Pacific (Fiji, Samoa and Tahiti) is the other factor contributing to the observed seasonality and variability in surface ozone levels. The changing frequency of transport from the southern mid-latitude (from high altitudes) is the only transport regime at the boundary layer having the most significant influence on the surface ozone levels at these Pacific sites.

Small Pacific Island Countries (PICs) are among the most vulnerable countries in the world to the anticipated detrimental health effects of climate change. The assessment of health vulnerabilities and planning adaptation strategies to minimize the impacts of climate change on health tests traditional health governance structures and depends on strong linkages and partnerships between actors involved in these vital processes.

Traditional knowledge of disasters has been found to save lives. On remote islands where telecommunications to the mainland are unreliable unless there are always working batteries in the radio, signs from the environment may be the only warning of an oncoming cyclone.

Increases in the frequency of extreme weather and climate events and the severity of their impacts on the natural environment and society have been observed across the globe in recent decades. In addition to natural climate variability and greenhouse-induced climate change, extreme weather and climate events produce the most pronounced impacts. In this paper, the climate of three island countries in the Western Pacific: Fiji, Samoa and Tuvalu, has been analysed. Warming trends in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures since the 1950s have been identified, in line with the global warming trend. We present recent examples of extreme weather and climate events and their impacts on the island countries in the Western Pacific: the 2011 drought in Tuvalu, the 2012 floods in Fiji and a tropical cyclone, Evan, which devastated Samoa and Fiji in December 2012. We also relate occurrences of the extreme weather and climate events to phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The impacts of such natural disasters on the countries are severe and the costs of damage are astronomical. In some cases, climate extremes affect countries to such an extent that governments declare a national state of emergency, as occurred in Tuvalu in 2011 due to the severe drought’s impact on water resources. The projected increase in the frequency of weather and climate extremes is one of the expected consequences of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration and will likely have even stronger negative impacts on the natural environment and society in the future. This should be taken into consideration by authorities of Pacific Island Countries and aid donors when developing strategies to adapt to the increasing risk of climate extremes. Here we demonstrate that the modern science of seasonal climate prediction is well developed, with current dynamical climate models being able to provide skilful predictions of regional rainfall two-three months in advance. The dynamic climate model-based forecast products are now disseminated to the National Meteorological Services of 15 island countries in the Western Pacific through a range of web-based information tools. We conclude with confidence that seasonal climate prediction is an effective solution at the regional level to provide governments and local communities of island nations in the Western Pacific with valuable assistance for informed decision making for adaptation to climate variability and change.

The climate is changing and this poses significant threats to human health. Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing Pacific Island countries and territories due to their unique geophysical features, and their social, economic and cultural characteristics. The Pacific region also faces challenges with widely dispersed populations, limited resources and fragmented health systems. Over the past few years, there has been a substantial increase in international aid for health activities aimed at adapting to the threats of climate change. This funding needs to be used strategically to ensure an effective approach to reducing the health risk from climate change. Respecting the principles of development effectiveness will result in more effective and sustainable adaptation, in particular, 1) processes should be owned and driven by local communities, 2) investments should be aligned with existing national priorities and policies, and 3) existing systems must not be ignored, but rather expanded upon and reinforced.

This study reports on a preliminary assessment of storm surge risk from tropical cyclones at Rarotonga, Cook Islands. Analysis of a 175 year record of cyclones from the Cook Islands indicates minimum annual probabilities of 16% for storm surges and 5% for major storm surge impacts at Rarotonga. Storm surges have historically inundated areas of the coastal lowland where virtually all human activities and infrastructure are currently located. The impacts of such events have been particularly severe in the Cook Islands' capital of Avarua and adjacent communities on the north coast of Rarotonga. Detailed infrastructure mapping combined with analysis of historic storm surge impacts and cyclones tracks in the vicinity of Rarotonga indicates that the storm surge risk is greatest along the north coast where the majority of the Cook Islands' government functions and commercials, industrial, transportation and communication infrastructure is located. Damage to this infrastructure at the shoreline can have serious repercussions throughout the Cook Islands. Any efforts to increase the country's resilience to such impacts must be undertaken within the larger goal of adaptation to future climate changes and rising sea levels. The greatest risk presently to human life arises from many cyclone safety centres in locations where they are exposed to storm surges or flooding. A top priority should be relocation of these shelters to safer locations further inland so that they can provide suitable shelter from storm surges and flooding as well as tsunamis, taking into account other hazards presented by Rarotonga's rugged topography.

Climate ExChange is a fully illustrated 250-page book with over 100 authors relating their work in weather, climate and water services at international, regional, national and local levels. The commentaries draw upon experiences around the world reflecting how people are using climate information to improve their lives. Climate ExChange reflects the progress and challenges in these fields, highlighting good practices in a wide variety of societies and disciplines.