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The Asia and Pacific region is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Unabated warming could significantly undo previous achievements of economic development and improvements of living standards. At the same time, the region has both the economic capacity and weight of influence to change the present fossil-fuel based development pathway and curb global emissions. This report sheds light on the regional implications of the latest projections of changes in climate conditions over Asia and the Pacific. The assessment concludes that, even under the Paris consensus scenario in which global warming is limited to 1.5°C to 2°C above preindustrial levels, some of the land area, ecosystems, and socioeconomic sectors will be significantly affected by climate change impacts, to which policy makers and the investment community need to adapt to. However, under a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, which will cause a global mean temperature rise of over 4°C by the end of this century, the possibilities for adaptation are drastically reduced. Among others, climate change impacts such as the deterioration of the Asian “water towers”, prolonged heat waves, coastal sea-level rise and changes in rainfall patterns could disrupt ecosystem services and lead to severe effects on livelihoods which in turn would affect human health, migration dynamics and the potential for conflicts. This assessment also underlines that, for many areas vital to the region’s economy, research on the effects of climate change is still lacking.

In response to the dire social and economic consequences predicted to result from climate change—especially for the most vulnerable populations in developing countries— policy makers around the world are working toward a new long-term international framework to address this global challenge. Asia and the Pacific has the world’s most dynamic economies but also the greatest number of people at risk from climate change as well as the fastest-growing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs)—the cause of global warming. Unless Asia and the rest of the world act to stabilize GHG emissions, poverty reduction efforts will experience new threats from climate-induced risks to the health, safety, and productivity of the poor. Such impacts are already affecting populations across the region, so even with aggressive actions, measures are needed to protect the most vulnerable from the adverse effects of sea level rise, melting glaciers, more frequent and severe climate-related natural disasters, greater variability of rainfall, and other predicted consequences of climate change.

An invasive alien species are known to cause significant economic and environmental damage. Islands are much more vulnerable to the invasion of invasive alien species, and have higher rates of extinction. In the islands of the South Pacific, there are several species Polynesian land birds which are threatened with extinction due to invasive alien species and human interference. Without any intervention from humans, it is likely that these birds will suffer extinction in the next few decades. The island of Atiu in the Cook Islands (South Pacific) supports a range of avian fauna. In 2007 the Rimitara lorikeet (Vini kuhlii), also known locally as the ‘Kura’ was introduced to Atiu, to make a reserve population, as there were only approximatley 1000 left on the island of Rimitara, French Polynesia. There is concern for this species on Atiu due to the existence of the common myna (Acridotheres tristis). The myna is an aggressive invasive which is one of the world’s worst 100 invasive species. It was introduced to the Cook Islands by the government, with the intention to control the coconut-stick insect (Graeffea crouani), but is now a pest itself. A myna control programme on Atiu is being coordinated and controlled by Gerald McCormack (Cook Islands Natural Heritage Trust), working through George Mateariki, and using funding from various conservation organisations. Poisioning is being carried out by George in order to reduce myna numbers, and a bounty has been set on the birds or for every right foot so that the locals can help as much as possible. This investigation aimed to estimate the total population size on the island to use as a starting count to determine whether the programme is successful or not. Two methods were used which included roost counts to find an estimate of the population, and a transect method using a Distance programme to estimate the number of birds per hectare as well as the level of abundance in various habitat types. The two methods had overlapping results, giving a total estimated range of 3250 to 8460 birds on the island, although it is more likely to be at the higher end of this estimate at around 6000 to7000 birds. Further investigation will need to determine any change in the population size, any changes in habitat composition as well as the impact on the native species, especially the effect on the Kura and its population size.

A strong state reinforces investment yield, whether this results from public or private sector investment. Th e development needs of a weak state must diff er from those of a strong state. Th e fragile states of the Pacifi c are not the dynamic societies of Asia.1 Th ese may sound like obvious statements but the special needs of Pacifi c fragile states have not been apparent in earlier approaches to development in the Pacifi c region. Current Asian Development Bank (ADB) regional and country strategies and programs diff er from those of earlier years. Emphasis on maintaining project loan portfolios has been lessened and replaced by an emphasis on strengthening state operations, including testing and strengthening the demand for reform, and engaging civil society in development decisions. Th e shift is toward greater participation in development with the aim of building demand for good governance and reform to support performance-oriented delivery of public and private goods and services.

Recent studies have shown that the Cook Islands' social infrastructure has limited preparedness against weather-related vulnerability. The inherent geographical vulnerability of the country to climate change can be ameliorated by initiating integrated infrastructure and social development, including human resources development.